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Trading Expectancy and Drawdown Calculators

Explore two calculations with explicit assumptions. Inputs are processed in your browser and are not submitted to the website.

Calculate a sample relationship

Expectancy calculator

Two-outcome example in R. Average win and loss are positive magnitudes before the extra cost entered below.

Example: +0.20R per trade; break-even win rate 33.33%.

Formula: p × average win − (1 − p) × average loss − extra cost. If your win/loss inputs already include all costs, enter zero extra cost.

Drawdown and recovery calculator

Enter a positive peak and a subsequent trough between zero and that peak, in the same units.

Example: 20% drawdown; 25% gain needed to recover.

Drawdown = (peak − trough) / peak. Recovery = drawdown / (1 − drawdown). This measures the entered decline, not a full-series historical maximum.

Understand the result

The expectancy example assumes only winning and losing outcomes. It describes an arithmetic model; it does not establish how a future sample will behave. Include flat outcomes explicitly when calculating a mean from a full trade history.

The drawdown calculator uses the peak and trough you enter. To calculate maximum drawdown over a history, evaluate the sequence of running peaks and subsequent values. A two-point example cannot locate the worst decline in a full series.

Read the worked examples

See the expectancy formula guide and the drawdown recovery guide for assumptions and examples. Download the journal template to organise the observations used in a review.

Questions about this topic

Do the calculators store my inputs?

The calculators process inputs in the browser. They do not submit the values, save them in cookies or connect to an account.

Why can recovery be unavailable?

After a 100% decline, there is no remaining value from which a finite percentage gain can restore the original peak.

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